In general, this week seemed a lot more straightforward (predictable) compared to the relative carnage of the first three weeks of the season. Although Philadelphia losing to Tennessee was a bit of a surprise. I only had the Eagles as a 58% favourite so it was not the biggest upset by any means. Baltimore beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati beating the Falcons in Atlanta were considerably bigger upsets in my model as those two away teams only had a 33% chance of winning.
It was also a pretty straightforward week at the bookies as my model did not pick up many spots for betting i.e. the lines were set at about the right levels without many edges. Buffalo were an early pick but their odds soon tightened which took them off the table, fortunately. They were only a potential bet due to their relatively long opening odds of +330, my model was never picking them to actually win the game.
Indianapolis were also identified as a bet at the start of the week but as punter confidence in them shrunk, causing their odds to lengthen, this bet also evaporated. Another bullet dodged. This is the opposite case of the context. In the first example the odds are shortening, in the second lengthening yet they both became nonviable bets. My model looks at both the difference between the game prediction and the odds but the way bet/no bet decision also incorporates market confidence.
The only other bet it threw up, the only one I did end up placing, was on the Oakland Raiders at -140 against the Cleveland Browns. At least the Raiders were at home, which is a considerable advantage in the NFL. Oakland's pitch has a few tonnes of sand in the middle of it which is not taken into account in my model, Nate Silver would probably build it in though.
I would say the Raiders are probably over-rated by my model but they are still the 6th lowest rated team. The Browns, in the other hand, are the perennial bottom feeder, both in the league and in my model. But they do probably have a more pessimistic rating than they deserve. This means they often come up as a team to bet against. I have bet against them in weeks 1 and 2 this year and it was a very close call against the Jets in week 3 (another bullet ultimately dodged by my model). I will probably bet against them in week 5 too.
What a nail-biter of a game it was, with the Raiders taking it to over-time with an 8 point drive in the final minute of regular time and then winning on their second possession of over-time after missing a field goal (from the aforementioned sand) earlier in the period. This win gave me an ROI of 71% for the week (duh, the single bet was at -140), 62% against the Browns (BOI - Browturn On Investment) and lifting my overall ROI to 6% after the previous week's slump. All of this is captured in the snazztastic graph below.
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