I skipped on my NFL betting update last week for a few reasons. Firstly, I noticed errors in both my NFL and college football models so was spending time correcting those. Secondly, I was annoyed at my bad results in week 5 so did not feel like posting, the details are all below though. However, as Week 6 was my biggest winning week to date, I am happy about my model again now.
Outright predictions wise, I got 60% (9/15) right in week 5 and 73% (11/15) correct in week 6. This has pulled my overall prediction rate up to 58%. This is starting to get respectable but my target is around mid-60 percent correct.
I had four bets in week 5 and went 2-2. This was an annoying week for me as I very rarely have losing weeks and this was my second in three. A lot of my bets tend to be on favourites (they are favourites for a reason and generally win). This means that when they do lose you tend to lose quite big(ly) and winning the other bets does not tend to make up for the shortfall.
The four bets were:
Carolina Panthers (hosting the New York Giants) at -303
Baltimore Ravens (at the Cleveland Browns) at -150
New England Patriots (hosting the Indianapolis Colts) at -520
Dallas Cowboys (at the Houston Texans) at +150
The two winning bets were the Panthers and Patriots, the two losing bets were the Ravens and Cowboys. This gave me an ROI for the week of -32% and resulted in an overall loss-making record for the season to date (the first time this year). Fortunately, this was recovered in week 6, with my biggest winning week of the season, but more on that later.
I was very relieved that the Panthers won with their last-minute field goal, that was very close. I had resigned myself to losing and the Panthers probably deserved to.
Baltimore losing to the Browns was a big upset, in my opinion. I felt that getting the Ravens at -150 against the Browns was a steal. I had just been bragging about betting against the Browns and how great it was when this result went and happened. This took me into a slight losing record (money wise) against the Browns, which annoyed me. This was corrected in week 6 though, with another bet against the Browns and it looks like I may bet against them again in week 7.
The Dallas bet was much more speculative and I was not particularly happy about placing it. They do seem like a pretty bad team yet they are 3-2 for the season and just put 40 points on Jacksonville. Yet I still have the feeling my model over rates them (and under rates the Texans a bit). This bet was right on the cusp of the allowable limit (set by my model) of being placed. But as it was still saying it was a good bet at closing odds time, I placed it. I always place a bet if my model tells me to, even if it feels bad to me. In the end they only lost by 3 points, so it does not look too terrible in hindsight, given they were +150.
The Patriots won at home to the Colts – no surprise there.
Did I mention week 6 was my biggest winning week thus far this season? The four bets placed were;
The Philadelphia Eagles (at the New York Giants) at -125
The Buffalo Bills (at the Houston Texans) at +360
The LA Chargers (at the Cleveland Browns) at -120
The Miami Dolphins (hosting the Chicago Bears) at +225
The Eagles were only -125 at the Giants, how could one not bet on that? They opened at -160 and then the money went in on the Giants to reduce the odds on the Eagles. Have people seen the Giants play? The Eagles might not have looked great this season but neither have the Giants. A pretty easy win in the end.
The only losing bet, on the Bills, was a very speculative bet and only came about because of their long odds. The Bills probably are over-rated in my model, and the Texans relatively under-rated, but the bet threshold was +300, so it was not suggesting betting unless the odds were particularly wide. The Bills only lost because of a pick six from their backup quarterback in the last 90 seconds of the game, so I do not feel too bad about this one. The longer the odds, the smaller my bets tend to be, so it was not a large amount of money to lose.
For the second week in a row, I felt like the Browns were massively over-rated in the odds. I bet on the Chargers at -120 because I thought the line was about to drift back, but they closed at about -105 after going as wide as +105 so the Browns started as -116 favourites (the Browns!). The Chargers are not that bad a team. The Browns are not terrible (not AS terrible as they were anyway) but I do not see how they are a favourite against this year’s Chargers. In the end, the Chargers won comfortably so my take was justified. This meant I was profitable against the Browns again, saved from embarrassment. Current BOI is +13%.
I was quite the braggart on twitter (follow me @FzBtz) after the Dolphins win because these odds seemed particularly good for them. They have had a good start to the season and it is not as if the Chicago Bears are some amazingly awesome team, just pretty solid. What I did not realise was that it was the Dolphin's quarterback playing.
My model does not take injuries and trades into account explicitly. However, to a certain extent this is rolled up into the thresholds for when a bet should be placed or not. What one will often find is that a team becomes a suggested bet in the model if a star player is injured. I would say this is due to over-compensation of bookmakers and bettors to such occurrences and still provides some value situations. I won a big bet on the Packers last year against the Bears (again, ha!) after Rodgers was injured. Without that bet, the Packers would have been a slight losing team for me in 2017.
None of that matters now as the Dolphins won. However, the odds did not provide quite the value I initially thought they had. I do not play close attention to injury reports and other news going into the games. I do not need to as I just look at the games schedule, the odds and the results. These are the only inputs to my model and I barely even watch the games. I especially do not watch the games I have bet on as I find it too intense to watch. I live in the UK so the first round of games begin at 6 pm, then 9 pm, then 1 am. I have to get up early on a Monday so I am usually in bed just after the second round of games start. This does not give me much opportunity to really watch the games. Frankly, I find American Football pretty boring to watch in real time. The condensed games, with all the action in 40 minutes, are fine though.
All that blathering is irrelevant now though as I have an ROI of +10% for the year. This is a respectable rate and I would be happy to finish the season with an overall rate around this level.
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