NFL Week 7 Picks

Picks for the week 7 NFL games listed below. Predicted winners are [these ones].

I do not think (m)any of them are particularly contentious. The two more irrational ones that jump out to me are the Cardinals winning the Thursday Night Football game against the Broncos, although this is only due to home advantage, and predicting the Bills to beat the Colts on the road with a backup quarterback (although their first choice is only a rookie). The latter seems rather speculative and the Colts are a big favourite with the oddsmakers.

The closest game in my model is the Saints at the Ravens. Both teams are fairly highly rated by my model (four wins each this season) but the Saints just edge this, even with the Ravens' home advantage.

There are no huge favourites this week. No team has a win probability of over 78%. But the moderately big favourites, with percentage win chance in the seventies, in descending order are: the Falcons, the Buccaneers (somewhat surprisingly but the Browns are really lowly rated still) the Rams, the Patriots, the Chiefs and the Vikings.

Denver Broncos at [Arizona Cardinals]
Tennessee Titans vs [Los Angeles Chargers]
[New England Patriots] at Chicago Bears
[Buffalo Bills] at Indianapolis Colts
Detroit Lions at [Miami Dolphins]
[Minnesota Vikings] at New York Jets
Carolina Panthers at [Philadelphia Eagles]
Cleveland Browns at [Tampa Bay Buccaneers]
Houston Texans at [Jacksonville Jaguars]
[New Orleans Saints] at Baltimore Ravens
[Los Angeles Rams] at San Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys at [Washington Redskins]
Cincinnati Bengals at [Kansas City Chiefs]
New York Giants at [Atlanta Falcons]

Happy punting!