NFL Week 3 Re-Cap

Well week 3 in the NFL was a total disaster for me. Almost all of my profit for this season has been wiped out, leaving a current ROI of +1% and my bets are now 6-5-1.

This week's bets were:

• Philadelphia Eagles -280
• Minnesota Vikings -1600
• Atlanta Falcons -125
• Arizona Cardinals +195

Three losses and one win. The only small consolation being that the largest bet (as it was the one with the largest edge) was the only winning one.

The Vikings loss is particularly galling. I have records of the closing odds for all NFL games dating back to the 2006 season (inclusive). This is the biggest upset in that entire time period. That is, any time when the odds have been this short for a team they have won. Apparently it is the largest upset in 23 years.

The closest upset to this in my records was the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Oakland Raiders in week 13 of 2009 when they were -1300 favourites. The Steelers only lost this game 27-24 too, not the 27-6 thrashing the Bills just meted out to the Vikings.

The Falcons lost in overtime, after being ahead until about a minute to go in regular time. This was a marginal bet and only became viable when the Falcon's odds went from -130 to -125 just before the game.

The Cardinals...well...it is not like I expected them to win. But when a team goes 14-0 up and into half time at 14-3 they should be able to finish it off. That should not be a big surprise this season as they barely scored in the entirety of their first two games. 'The Bears forced four turnovers on four consecutive Arizona possessions in the second half' - says it all really.

But then it is not as if the Eagles blew the Colts away, only winning 20-16 with a touchdown with three minutes left on the clock.

I also only predicted 6 of the 16 games correctly. With the Browns and Giants winning and the Packers, Patriots, Vikings, Jaguars losing it was a pretty hard week to predict. My overall rate for the season is a measly 48%.

Here's hoping week 4 goes a bit better.