Bets wise, I had 3 bets placed. My model normally spits out about 2 to 3 viable bets per week, so this is an average number.
The bets were: the Patriots at –278, the Vikings at –213 and the Steelers at –213. All pretty standard bets on highly rated teams, but all of these lines at much better odds than my model had them. It was also very close to suggesting betting on the Saints and the Cardinals but fortunately I dodged a couple of bullets on those. That just shows my model was right in terms of bets, even though it was wrong in terms of predictions.
The Patriots and Vikings came through for me, fairly straightforward there.
The Steelers game was a tense one to watch. They should have won it fairly easily but they fell apart in the last part of the 4th quarter. The field goal miss in overtime was a real heart-wrencher. Then the Browns field goal miss was a moment of elation which made me happy about the tie. The game ending in a tie means I get my money back, zero profit, zero loss. I actually had to modify my model to account for this! I had always incorporated the concept of ties in game results, but not for resolving bets.
Overall that gave me a ROI of 23% on week 1, so cannot complain too much about the Steelers throwing their 2 touchdown lead away.
The relative rankings of all the NFL teams going in to week 2 now sits at:
- New England Patriots
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Minnesota Vikings
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Carolina Panthers
- Atlanta Falcons
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Los Angeles Rams
- New Orleans Saints
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Dallas Cowboys (wtf!?)
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Seattle Seahawks
- Green Bay Packers
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Buffalo Bills
- Tennessee Titans
- Washington R*dskins
- Miami Dolphins
- Detroit Lions
- Arizona Caridnals
- Denver Broncos
- New York Jets
- San Francisco 49ers
- Oakland Raiders
- New YOrk Giants
- Houston Texans
- Chicago Bears
- Indianapolis Colts
- Cleveland Browns
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