[Picks] for all of this week's CFB FBS games from my Elo model:
[Western Michigan] at Ball State
[Buffalo] at Ohio
Miami (OH) at [Northern Illinois]
[Toledo] at Kent State
Tulane at [Houston]
[Florida Atlantic] at North Texas
[Boise State] at New Mexico
Memphis at [Southern Methodist]
Arkansas at [Mississippi State]
Colgate at [Army]
Idaho at [Florida]
[Michigan State] at Nebraska
Middle Tennessee State at [Kentucky]
[Northwestern] at Minnesota
[Ohio State] at Maryland
[Penn State] at Rutgers
Pittsburgh at [Wake Forest]
[Texas Christian] at Baylor
Citadel at [Alabama]
South Florida at [Temple]
[North Carolina State] at Louisville
[Utah] at Colorado
[Florida International] at Charlotte
[Utah State] at Colorado State
Virginia Military Institute at [Old Dominion]
Georgia State at [Appalachian State]
Syracuse vs [Notre Dame]
Texas-San Antonio at [Marshall]
Louisiana-Monroe at [Arkansas State]
Western Carolina at [North Carolina]
Boston College at [Florida State]
Bowling Green State at [Akron]
[Iowa] at Illinois
[Louisiana Tech] at Southern Mississippi
Miami (FL) at [Virginia Tech]
Missouri at [Tennessee]
Texas State at [Troy]
Texas Tech at [Kansas State]
Tulsa at [Navy]
[Southern California] at UCLA
Virginia at [Georgia Tech]
[West Virginia] at Oklahoma State
[Wisconsin] at Purdue
Air Force at [Wyoming]
Indiana at [Michigan]
Liberty at [Auburn]
Massachusetts at [Georgia]
Oregon State at [Washington]
[Georgia Southern] at Coastal Carolina
[Nevada] at San Jose State
South Alabama at [Louisiana-Lafayette]
Duke at [Clemson]
Alabama-Birmingham at [Texas A&M]
Connecticut at [East Carolina]
Chattanooga at [South Carolina]
Kansas at [Oklahoma]
Mississippi at [Vanderbilt]
Rice at [Louisiana State]
[Stanford] at California
Texas-El Paso at [Western Kentucky]
Cincinnati at [Central Florida]
Iowa State at [Texas]
New Mexico State at [Brigham Young]
Arizona at [Washington State]
[Arizona State] at Oregon
San Diego State at [Fresno State]
Nevada-Las Vegas at [Hawaii]
Friday, 16 November 2018
Week 11 NFL Picks
Week 11 NFL [picks] detailed below. You will have to trust me on the Seahawks picks, they were only a 57% favourite though.
Big favourites this week, in order: the Chargers, Saints (Philly have been bad recently) and the Steelers (the Jaguars have also been on somewhat of a slide).
The Giants versus Tampa Bay game is the closest to a coin flip with home advantage pushing the Giants over the line. The Ravens are not that much more of a favourite over the Bengals either.
Green Bay Packers at [Seattle Seahawks]
Dallas Cowboys at [Atlanta Falcons]
[Carolina Panthers] at Detroit Lions
[Tennessee Titans] at Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at [New York Giants]
Houston Texans at [Washington Redskins]
[Pittsburgh Steelers] at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at [Baltimore Ravens]
Oakland Raiders at [Arizona Cardinals]
Denver Broncos at [Los Angeles Chargers]
Philadelphia Eagles at [New Orleans Saints]
[Minnesota Vikings] at Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs at [Los Angeles Rams]
Big favourites this week, in order: the Chargers, Saints (Philly have been bad recently) and the Steelers (the Jaguars have also been on somewhat of a slide).
The Giants versus Tampa Bay game is the closest to a coin flip with home advantage pushing the Giants over the line. The Ravens are not that much more of a favourite over the Bengals either.
Green Bay Packers at [Seattle Seahawks]
Dallas Cowboys at [Atlanta Falcons]
[Carolina Panthers] at Detroit Lions
[Tennessee Titans] at Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at [New York Giants]
Houston Texans at [Washington Redskins]
[Pittsburgh Steelers] at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at [Baltimore Ravens]
Oakland Raiders at [Arizona Cardinals]
Denver Broncos at [Los Angeles Chargers]
Philadelphia Eagles at [New Orleans Saints]
[Minnesota Vikings] at Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs at [Los Angeles Rams]
Friday, 9 November 2018
NFL Week 10 Picks
[Picks] for the week 10 NFL games below.
Honestly, I picked the Steelers before Thursday's game. Well, I do not pick anything, my model does. They were only a 56% favourite but successfully mullered the Panthers.
The Chiefs and Falcons are the biggest favourites this week, both being over 80% probability to win.
The Jets are the smallest favourite this week, at 50.1% to beat the Bills.
Carolina Panthers at [Pittsburgh Steelers]
Detroit Lions at [Chicago Bears]
[New Orleans Saints] at Cincinnati Bengals
[Atlanta Falcons] at Cleveland Browns
[New England Patriots] at Tennessee Titans
[Jacksonville Jaguars] at Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals at [Kansas City Chiefs]
Buffalo Bills at [New York Jets]
[Washington Redskins] at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
[Los Angeles Chargers] at Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins at [Green Bay Packers]
Seattle Seahawks at [Los Angeles Rams]
Dallas Cowboys at [Philadelphia Eagles]
New York Giants at [San Francisco 49ers]
Honestly, I picked the Steelers before Thursday's game. Well, I do not pick anything, my model does. They were only a 56% favourite but successfully mullered the Panthers.
The Chiefs and Falcons are the biggest favourites this week, both being over 80% probability to win.
The Jets are the smallest favourite this week, at 50.1% to beat the Bills.
Carolina Panthers at [Pittsburgh Steelers]
Detroit Lions at [Chicago Bears]
[New Orleans Saints] at Cincinnati Bengals
[Atlanta Falcons] at Cleveland Browns
[New England Patriots] at Tennessee Titans
[Jacksonville Jaguars] at Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals at [Kansas City Chiefs]
Buffalo Bills at [New York Jets]
[Washington Redskins] at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
[Los Angeles Chargers] at Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins at [Green Bay Packers]
Seattle Seahawks at [Los Angeles Rams]
Dallas Cowboys at [Philadelphia Eagles]
New York Giants at [San Francisco 49ers]
College Football Week 11 Picks
Picks for this week's FBS college football games listed below.
Kent State at [Buffalo]
[Ohio] at Miami (OH)
Toledo at [Northern Illinois]
Wake Forest at [North Carolina State]
Louisville at [Syracuse]
Fresno State at [Boise State]
Akron at [Eastern Michigan]
[Brigham Young] at Massachusetts
Illinois at [Nebraska]
Kansas at [Kansas State]
Louisiana-Lafayette at [Army]
Maryland at [Indiana]
Navy at [Central Florida]
[Ohio State] at Michigan State
Mississippi at [Texas A&M]
[Southern Methodist] at Connecticut
South Carolina at [Florida]
Texas Christian at [West Virginia]
Tulsa at [Memphis]
Vanderbilt at [Missouri]
Wisconsin at [Penn State]
North Carolina at [Duke]
[Troy] at Georgia Southern
UCLA at [Arizona State]
Charlotte at [Marshall]
Bowling Green State at [Central Michigan]
Liberty at [Virginia]
[Middle Tennessee State] at Texas-El Paso
Baylor at [Iowa State]
[Michigan] at Rutgers
[Kentucky] at Tennessee
Mississippi State at [Alabama]
New Mexico at [Air Force]
[North Texas] at Old Dominion
Northwestern at [Iowa]
Oklahoma State at [Oklahoma]
[Purdue] at Minnesota
Virginia Tech at [Pittsburgh]
[Washington State] at Colorado
[Appalachian State] at Texas State
East Carolina at [Tulane]
San Jose State at [Utah State]
Arkansas State at [Coastal Carolina]
Georgia State at [Louisiana-Lafayette]
[Louisiana-Monroe] at South Alabama
Western Kentucky at [Florida Atlantic]
Oregon at [Utah]
Auburn at [Georgia]
[Florida International] at Texas-San Antonio
Miami (FL) at [Georgia Tech]
Rice at [Louisiana Tech]
Temple at [Houston]
South Florida at [Cincinnati]
Florida State at [Notre Dame]
[Louisiana State] at Arkansas
Southern Mississippi at [Alabama-Birmingham]
Texas at [Texas Tech]
[Clemson] at Boston College
Oregon State at [Stanford]
Colorado State at [Nevada]
Nevada-Las Vegas at [San Diego State]
California at [Southern California]
Kent State at [Buffalo]
[Ohio] at Miami (OH)
Toledo at [Northern Illinois]
Wake Forest at [North Carolina State]
Louisville at [Syracuse]
Fresno State at [Boise State]
Akron at [Eastern Michigan]
[Brigham Young] at Massachusetts
Illinois at [Nebraska]
Kansas at [Kansas State]
Louisiana-Lafayette at [Army]
Maryland at [Indiana]
Navy at [Central Florida]
[Ohio State] at Michigan State
Mississippi at [Texas A&M]
[Southern Methodist] at Connecticut
South Carolina at [Florida]
Texas Christian at [West Virginia]
Tulsa at [Memphis]
Vanderbilt at [Missouri]
Wisconsin at [Penn State]
North Carolina at [Duke]
[Troy] at Georgia Southern
UCLA at [Arizona State]
Charlotte at [Marshall]
Bowling Green State at [Central Michigan]
Liberty at [Virginia]
[Middle Tennessee State] at Texas-El Paso
Baylor at [Iowa State]
[Michigan] at Rutgers
[Kentucky] at Tennessee
Mississippi State at [Alabama]
New Mexico at [Air Force]
[North Texas] at Old Dominion
Northwestern at [Iowa]
Oklahoma State at [Oklahoma]
[Purdue] at Minnesota
Virginia Tech at [Pittsburgh]
[Washington State] at Colorado
[Appalachian State] at Texas State
East Carolina at [Tulane]
San Jose State at [Utah State]
Arkansas State at [Coastal Carolina]
Georgia State at [Louisiana-Lafayette]
[Louisiana-Monroe] at South Alabama
Western Kentucky at [Florida Atlantic]
Oregon at [Utah]
Auburn at [Georgia]
[Florida International] at Texas-San Antonio
Miami (FL) at [Georgia Tech]
Rice at [Louisiana Tech]
Temple at [Houston]
South Florida at [Cincinnati]
Florida State at [Notre Dame]
[Louisiana State] at Arkansas
Southern Mississippi at [Alabama-Birmingham]
Texas at [Texas Tech]
[Clemson] at Boston College
Oregon State at [Stanford]
Colorado State at [Nevada]
Nevada-Las Vegas at [San Diego State]
California at [Southern California]
Friday, 2 November 2018
College Football Week 10 Picks
Kent State at [Bowling Green State]
Miami (OH) at [Buffalo]
Ball State at [Toledo]
[Northern Illinois] at Akron
Ohio at [Western Michigan]
Temple at [Central Florida]
Pittsburgh at [Virginia]
Western Kentucky at [Middle Tennessee State]
Colorado at [Arizona]
Air Force at [Army]
Central Michigan at [Eastern Michigan]
[Iowa State] at Kansas
Louisville at [Clemson]
[Memphis] at East Carolina
[Michigan State] at Maryland
Nebraska at [Ohio State]
[Oklahoma State] at Baylor
Rutgers at [Wisconsin]
South Carolina at [Mississippi]
Syracuse at [Wake Forest]
Texas A&M at [Auburn]
[Georgia Tech] at North Carolina
San Jose State at [Wyoming]
Texas State at [Georgia State]
[Georgia Southern] at Louisiana-Monroe
[Marshall] at Southern Mississippi
South Alabama at [Arkansas State]
Florida State at [North Carolina State]
[Georgia] at Kentucky
[Iowa] at Purdue
Kansas State at [Texas Christian]
[Liberty] at Massachusetts
Louisiana-Lafayette at [Troy]
[Minnesota] at Illinois
Navy at [Cincinnati]
Tulane at [South Florida]
Texas-El Paso at [Rice]
West Virginia at [Texas]
Boston College at [Virginia Tech]
Penn State at [Michigan]
Alcorn State at [New Mexico State]
Charlotte at [Tennessee]
Missouri at [Florida]
[Utah] at Arizona State
[Appalachian State] at Coastal Carolina
Duke at [Miami (FL)]
[Houston] at Southern Methodist
Connecticut at [Tulsa]
[Notre Dame] at Northwestern
Florida Atlantic at [Florida International]
Louisiana Tech at [Mississippi State]
UCLA at [Oregon]
Texas-San Antonio at [Alabama-Birmingham]
[Alabama] at Louisiana State
[Oklahoma] at Texas Tech
Stanford at [Washington]
[Southern California] at Oregon State
Brigham Young at [Boise State]
[San Diego State] at New Mexico
[Fresno State] at Nevada-Las Vegas
California at [Washington State]
[Utah State] at Hawaii
Miami (OH) at [Buffalo]
Ball State at [Toledo]
[Northern Illinois] at Akron
Ohio at [Western Michigan]
Temple at [Central Florida]
Pittsburgh at [Virginia]
Western Kentucky at [Middle Tennessee State]
Colorado at [Arizona]
Air Force at [Army]
Central Michigan at [Eastern Michigan]
[Iowa State] at Kansas
Louisville at [Clemson]
[Memphis] at East Carolina
[Michigan State] at Maryland
Nebraska at [Ohio State]
[Oklahoma State] at Baylor
Rutgers at [Wisconsin]
South Carolina at [Mississippi]
Syracuse at [Wake Forest]
Texas A&M at [Auburn]
[Georgia Tech] at North Carolina
San Jose State at [Wyoming]
Texas State at [Georgia State]
[Georgia Southern] at Louisiana-Monroe
[Marshall] at Southern Mississippi
South Alabama at [Arkansas State]
Florida State at [North Carolina State]
[Georgia] at Kentucky
[Iowa] at Purdue
Kansas State at [Texas Christian]
[Liberty] at Massachusetts
Louisiana-Lafayette at [Troy]
[Minnesota] at Illinois
Navy at [Cincinnati]
Tulane at [South Florida]
Texas-El Paso at [Rice]
West Virginia at [Texas]
Boston College at [Virginia Tech]
Penn State at [Michigan]
Alcorn State at [New Mexico State]
Charlotte at [Tennessee]
Missouri at [Florida]
[Utah] at Arizona State
[Appalachian State] at Coastal Carolina
Duke at [Miami (FL)]
[Houston] at Southern Methodist
Connecticut at [Tulsa]
[Notre Dame] at Northwestern
Florida Atlantic at [Florida International]
Louisiana Tech at [Mississippi State]
UCLA at [Oregon]
Texas-San Antonio at [Alabama-Birmingham]
[Alabama] at Louisiana State
[Oklahoma] at Texas Tech
Stanford at [Washington]
[Southern California] at Oregon State
Brigham Young at [Boise State]
[San Diego State] at New Mexico
[Fresno State] at Nevada-Las Vegas
California at [Washington State]
[Utah State] at Hawaii
NFL Week 9 Picks
Picks for this week's NFL games below.
My model has a real fascination with the Buffalo Bills. The problem is their two wins over fairly decent teams. Beating the Vikings in Minnesota was an impressive win, both in the real world and the number of Elo points they gained from it. This has kept them fairly high up in model, they are the 24th ranked team. On the other hand, the Bears seem like a good team yet are only 4-3, with the Seahawks the only good team they have actually beaten. This leaves them ranked 23rd so the Bills are favoured purely because of home advantage.
Oakland Raiders at [San Francisco 49ers]
Chicago Bears at [Buffalo Bills]
[Kansas City Chiefs] at Cleveland Browns
New York Jets at [Miami Dolphins]
Detroit Lions at [Minnesota Vikings]
Atlanta Falcons at [Washington Redskins]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at [Carolina Panthers]
[Pittsburgh Steelers] at Baltimore Ravens
[Houston Texans] at Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers at [Seattle Seahawks]
Los Angeles Rams at [New Orleans Saints]
Green Bay Packers at [New England Patriots]
Tennessee Titans at [Dallas Cowboys]
My model has a real fascination with the Buffalo Bills. The problem is their two wins over fairly decent teams. Beating the Vikings in Minnesota was an impressive win, both in the real world and the number of Elo points they gained from it. This has kept them fairly high up in model, they are the 24th ranked team. On the other hand, the Bears seem like a good team yet are only 4-3, with the Seahawks the only good team they have actually beaten. This leaves them ranked 23rd so the Bills are favoured purely because of home advantage.
Oakland Raiders at [San Francisco 49ers]
Chicago Bears at [Buffalo Bills]
[Kansas City Chiefs] at Cleveland Browns
New York Jets at [Miami Dolphins]
Detroit Lions at [Minnesota Vikings]
Atlanta Falcons at [Washington Redskins]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at [Carolina Panthers]
[Pittsburgh Steelers] at Baltimore Ravens
[Houston Texans] at Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers at [Seattle Seahawks]
Los Angeles Rams at [New Orleans Saints]
Green Bay Packers at [New England Patriots]
Tennessee Titans at [Dallas Cowboys]
Monday, 29 October 2018
College Football Week 10 Rankings
It must have been a pretty unpredictable week in college football as my model only got 52% of the games correct. Prior to this, my worst week for the season prediction wise was week 7 at 64%. All other weeks I predicted over 70% of games correctly. The overall rate for the season still sits at 73%.
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
- Louisiana State
- Central Florida
- Michigan
- Washington State
- Penn State
- Wisconsin
- Utah
- Mississippi State
- Boise State
- Iowa State
- Northwestern
- Kentucky
- Auburn
- Michigan State
- Iowa
- Florida
- Stanford
- Washington
- North Carolina State
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